Interview

Aleksandar Matković for the series “Lithium – Experts Speak”: Serbia Without a Strategic Plan Faces the Risk of Mining Colonization

“We simply cannot just hand over any kind of resources to foreign companies, no matter where they are located. That’s a sign that we are not taking care of our own population. It’s either going to be the corporations or it’s going to be us.”

In the fifth episode of the series “Lithium – Experts Speak”, Aleksandar Matković, research associate at the Institute of Economics, openly questions: Does Serbia have a clear strategic development plan, or is it surrendering to the interests of foreign corporations?

Good day, Mr. Matković, welcome. To start, I’ll ask you to respond to five quick questions that all our guests answer, with replies expected to be in one or two short sentences. After that, we’ll continue with the main part of the interview.

No.

Do you know of any place in the world where lithium is planned to be extracted on fertile land?
Is it possible, in your opinion, to carry out lithium extraction in Jadar in an environmentally sustainable way?
Should natural resources, especially a healthy environment and clean water, be preserved for future generations, in your opinion?
Can any company, in your view, guarantee that lithium extraction and processing of jadarite in Jadar would not result in toxic leaks and environmental pollution?
Are you against mining as an industry?
Thank you for this first part of the conversation. President Vučić called lithium "white gold." Do you agree with that characterization, and how would you explain the global significance of lithium?

First of all, I believe that the phrase "white gold" hides more than it reveals. Why? First, the term "black gold" – oil – was used in the 19th century when it was discovered, but oil is a fuel, whereas lithium is used for storage. These are two different types of commodities. That’s one thing. Second, the whole idea of "gold" originates in America during the gold rush, when mining expanded rapidly, and there was, it seems to me, an excess of capital that could be invested in resources. You had Rockefeller, one of the people who coined the term "black gold," and also Henry Ford, who developed cars that created the demand for that black gold.

But the situation today is drastically different. We no longer live in the 19th century; we live in the 21st century, where it's very questionable what kind of demand for lithium really exists. I’ve contacted Rio Tinto, I’ve contacted the Ergo Group, which did those calculations, and even some departments in the European Parliament that worked on those estimates – and they’re not certain. They often commissioned third parties to extrapolate historical demand trends for lithium. To call it "white gold" seems unjustified to me. Back then, there was an actual demand for oil, while with lithium we are speculating about a possible future demand.

At the same time, this is corporate ideology – let me just emphasize that. When I say corporate ideology, I mean that these are the kinds of "facts" corporations want you to believe – such as the supposed future demand for lithium. However, the German auto industry is in crisis, Volkswagen is closing factories, Northvolt (a battery producer) is near bankruptcy. All of that affects demand and our projections of demand. So, when I hear "white gold," to me, it’s just a marketing term. Listeners shouldn’t take it at face value. Lithium is for storage, not for fuel. And for storage, there are sodium-ion batteries, hydrogen engines – a whole range of alternatives that can, but don’t have to, be used for building electric vehicles. This wasn’t the case with oil, which was historically irreplaceable – and soon to be depleted.

Moreover, it’s not even that rare, as people claim.
So which countries are leading in lithium production, and where does our country fit in?
So what is the current global market price of lithium, and what are the trends for the future, considering it’s portrayed as something highly valuable?
Now, all of this might sound complicated, but here’s the point: corporations don’t want to present this complexity. They want to tell you – here's one price, it will be great, life will be easy. But the whole story, if you look at the economic history of all this – it’s extremely complex.

We live in a completely insane time – war in Ukraine, global tensions, Russia threatening with nuclear weapons – who can predict any of this? The market is very unstable. Lithium, in general, is what’s called a hyper-cyclical commodity. Mining is highly volatile, and all of this can affect us if, as a country – the Republic of Serbia – we latch onto it. We could get dragged into global conflicts and fluctuations. This idea that someone can come and tell me "this will be the price of lithium" – based on what? How do they know? The price fluctuates constantly. And if we tie our GDP to lithium, we’ll experience massive economic swings. What if, as often overlooked, the military industry also uses lithium? Germany is developing aircraft and drones powered by lithium batteries. There's a security component here. Do we really want to be part of all that? I sincerely think this is too complex for the simplistic narrative that we’ll all suddenly live like lords – no, forget it.

Did Serbia negotiate well in the case of the Rio Tinto project and mining in Jadar?
For several months now, in addition to everything you’ve mentioned, we’re also being persuaded that canceling any kind of agreement or deal with Rio Tinto would cause significant harm – President Vučić even mentioned potential damages of a billion euros last summer. What do you think about those claims, and is there any basis for such estimates?
You mentioned earlier during the discussion about whether Serbia negotiated well that you couldn’t get access to the data you wanted. How would you assess the transparency of data regarding Rio Tinto in Serbia and all the companies affiliated with them? How difficult is it to access relevant data and what does that tell you?
You’ve now twice mentioned the company InoBat, so let me ask you to explain a bit more—for me and for our viewers. The government plans to give this company around 400 million euros in subsidies. You say they have no prior experience producing batteries, and one of their shareholders is Rio Tinto as well, all without clear and transparent guarantees. How do you comment on this? Can you explain the whole situation?

Well, it’s being explained to us as having a complete production chain in Serbia. But there are a few things. You mentioned that InoBat is a Rio Tinto subsidiary, and what I also find interesting is that in Slovakia—InoBat is based there—they are under investigation by a Dutch group called “Follow the Money,” on suspicion of ties with Maroš Šefčovič from the European Commission. Allegedly, they may have received funds from the Commission outside of official calls. That same Maroš Šefčovič came here to sign agreements with Vučić, and is part of the promotional effort. I want to be clear: I’m not making accusations, but based on public information and what I’ve heard from journalists, there’s a lot to investigate there.

So, I would say that these large-scale projects definitely create what’s known in the literature—and what I’ve sometimes referred to—as technological momentum. People often view this just through the lens of corruption, but the point is that these massive projects generate social interests. People come to invest in them, to align with these corporations. And the bigger they grow, like this Jadar project of ours, the more interests will gather around them—until eventually, the whole society becomes polarized. That has often been the historical case with such mega-investments. And I fear we are at a moment when the green transition requires these megalomaniac projects, which demand the development of certain technologies and large-scale mining.

All of this demands huge amounts of money, investment, and funds—which have to come from somewhere. And there, the door is wide open. If the European Commission stands behind such a project and provides financial support, I think that’s how semi-corrupt networks are created—between European capital, our authoritarian governments, and multinational corporations. In a way, what was once called state capitalism begins to function again, and that’s how authoritarian regimes are actually being strengthened.

In August this year (2024), you wrote an open letter to Rio Tinto, which you briefly mentioned earlier. What you didn’t say is that this letter actually caused a public stir, and in it, you said you were addressing Rio Tinto regarding the mining company that Serbia is turning into. What prompted you to write that letter, and what was its essence?

First of all, I wrote this open letter in support of my colleague Milica Kočović, who also wrote an open letter before me. However, instead of a response from the Rio Tinto company, or within their response, they threatened a lawsuit. I must point out that at that time, there were not many economists in that debate, and the whole point of this story was to make public data accessible to the public, where it should be. I publicly presented verifiable data, and my central thesis was that in the last 5 years, we have seen a sixfold increase in foreign investments in the mining sector. So, from about 100 million euros to over 700 million euros. And what has this brought us? Nothing, it hasn't translated into an increase in the standard of living. I mean, we have all those investments generating jobs, we have Bor, we have Rio Tinto, and when you look at the distribution of those investments, it turned out that Rio Tinto is responsible for over half of that increase, without it affecting us in any way. So, all these stories about how we, I don’t know, will live — I just looked at the data and concluded — well, we already have mining investments in Bor, we already have Rio Tinto capital coming into the country. Has this suddenly transformed us into a major economy? No, and I assume it will be the same in the future.

Additionally, I presented some data about the increasing extraction of natural resources, which leads to a rise in mining waste by over 150%, 90% of which is biologically active and hazardous. The point is that if we look at some indicators of the green transition, such as something called resource productivity — how much material we use per GDP, sometimes measured in kilograms per euro, that is decreasing in our case. We are digging more and more in Serbia, but it’s bringing us less and less benefit. Wait, this story completely contradicts everything we know.

And if you look at it, the green transition was supposed to lead to a win-win situation between the European Union and Serbia, improving the economy on both sides. That didn’t happen. You have the simple fact that while European countries are advancing in their transition, we are going backward, and that’s why I simply concluded what was once referred to in literature as — a colony. Of course, I can talk about that later, but the point is that it caused a stir in the public because we have the feeling that, in some way, the emperor has no clothes, that’s what it is.

We can talk about this or that piece of data, about this or that number, but if we look at the social process happening to us, we are actually aligning with the European periphery, and positioning ourselves as one of the new mining colonies in this new world of the green transition, where capitalist countries absolutely profit from this, where corporations reap the benefits, and I fear we are undergoing a similar process to what happened in the 19th century in Congo, Rwanda, and these African countries, where they were basically forced to service the service sectors of European countries, and that was unfortunately done in similar ways — by saying it would bring benefits, it would civilize them, and so on, and that they would be happy, but then you look at what that did.

You’ve opened up several topics now, so I would ask you to actually clarify this last part, why are you suggesting the use of the term neocolonialism, and what does this term fundamentally mean?
You mentioned earlier the green transition, which, as you say, is happening in the opposite direction here, so I’d love for you to say something about that. Specifically, are lithium batteries truly a sustainable solution, and are there better alternatives being researched?
At the beginning of the conversation, you mentioned that you had also addressed the European Parliament regarding data, and in mid-October 2024, you were at a session of the European Parliament on lithium mining in our country and Bosnia and Herzegovina, where you presented your arguments to the parliamentarians. What was the impact of that, do you feel any goal was achieved?
You are, by the way, one of those who doesn’t give up the fight despite various threats. You’ve received them as a member of the scientific community, but also as an activist. What would you say to the citizens of Serbia and activists like yourself, who don’t give up, but also to the academic community?

First of all, you can never know when you will win. Even in the darkest moment when you’ve given up on everything, thrown your hands up, everything seems awful, Vučić sends the BIA to kidnap people on the streets, the police harass people, they’re closing down our friends. I see my friends in prison now, I see friends who’ve been hit with smoke bombs. My morning looks horrible, but I know that each of us, even if we’re losing, needs to fight because this project stands on glass legs, and we don’t know that.

Maybe, if the opposition can use this, we have a chance to win, and not even know it. And that’s the strength because you’ve never had this level of resistance to a mine anywhere, not even in Portugal or Chile, where there were mass protests, where 8 metros burned in one night when Atacama was approved—here you have Serbia, where literally the whole country has risen against this. It will either be corporations or us.

Litijum: Stručnjaci govore

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Litijum: Stručnjaci govore

Naši gosti, nezavisni stručnjaci iz raznih naučnih oblasti, pružiće stručno i objektivno mišljenje o ovoj temi, koja ima dalekosežne posledice za našu prirodu, buduće generacije i zdravlje.

Lithium: Experts Speak

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